<div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Model:</div>
  <div class="eI2"><h2>Times Series from the ECMWF</h2></div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Osvje&#382;eno:</div>
  <div class="eI2">Update monthly</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Greenwich Mean Time:</div>
  <div class="eI2">12:00 UTC = 14:00 BST</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Razlu&#269;ivost:</div>
  <div class="eI2">1.0&deg; x 1.0&deg;</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Parametar:</div>
  <div class="eI2">CAPE and vertical velocity at 700 hPa</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Opis:</div>
  <div class="eI2">
The Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled convectively available 
potential energy. CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy (J/kg) available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work 
a parcel does on the environment. The higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to foster storm growth. The
potential energy can be converted to kinetic energy reflected in upward motion.
<BR>
It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. 
When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. 
Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment 
storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly.
Higher CAPE typically involves stronger storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. Note that
CAPE is usually of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes. The probability of large hail increases 
with CAPE, given at least moderate shear(values around 500-1000 J/kg are sufficient). 
<BR>
CAPE is very sensitive to small differences in the moisture and temperature profiles. While the maps indicate
1000 J/kg CAPE at some location, a <a href="/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=nz&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=temps&MODELLTYP=4&BASE=-&VAR=temps&LKEY=UK&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&SHOW=1">skew-T thermodynamic diagram</a> at that location may indicate 500-1500 J/kg.
(Source: <a href="http://www.lightningwizard.com" target="_blank">The Lightning Wizard</a>)
<BR>
Table 1: Characteristic values for CAPE<BR>
<TABLE border=1>
<TR>
   <TD><STRONG>CAPE value</STRONG></TD>

   <TD><STRONG>Convective potential</STRONG></TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>0 </TD>
   <TD>Stable</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>0-1000</TD>
   <TD>Marginally Unstable</TD>

</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>1000-2500</TD>
   <TD>Moderately Unstable</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>2500-3500</TD>
   <TD>Very Unstable</TD>
</TR>

<TR>
	<TD> 3500 + </TD>
	<TD> Extremely Unstable </TD>
<TR>
</TABLE> 

    
  </div>
 </div>
<div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Introduction to seasonal forecasting:</div>
  <div class="eI2">The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions. <br>&nbsp;<br>
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.<br>
&copy;<a href="https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/COPSRV/Seasonal+forecasts+and+the+Copernicus+Climate+Change+Service#SeasonalforecastsandtheCopernicusClimateChangeService-Introductiontoseasonalforecasting">Copernicus</a>
</div></div>
</div>