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  <div class="eI1">Model:</div>
  <div class="eI2"><h2>Times Series from the ECMWF</h2></div>
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  <div class="eI1">Osvje&#382;eno:</div>
  <div class="eI2">Update monthly</div>
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  <div class="eI1">Greenwich Mean Time:</div>
  <div class="eI2">12:00 UTC = 14:00 BST</div>
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  <div class="eI1">Razlu&#269;ivost:</div>
  <div class="eI2">1.0&deg; x 1.0&deg;</div>
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  <div class="eI1">Parametar:</div>
  <div class="eI2">Sea Level Pressure in hPa </div>
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  <div class="eI1">Opis:</div>
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The surface chart (also known as surface synoptic chart) presents the distribution of 
the atmospheric pressure observed at any given station on the earth's surface 
reduced to sea level.
You can read the positions of the controlling weather features (highs, lows, ridges or 
troughs) from the distribution of the isobars (lines of equal sea level pressure).
The isobars define the pressure field. The pressure field is the dominating player in 
the weather system.
Additionally, this map helps you to identify synoptic-scale waves and gives you a first 
estimate on meso-scale fronts.
    
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  <div class="eI1">Spaghetti plots:</div>
  <div class="eI2">
are a method of viewing data from an ensemble forecast.<br>
A meteorological variable e.g. pressure, temperature is drawn on a chart for a number of slightly different model runs from an ensemble. The model can then be stepped forward in time and the results compared and be used to gauge the amount of uncertainty in the forecast.<br>
If there is good agreement and the contours follow a recognisable pattern through the sequence then the confidence in the forecast can be high, conversely if the pattern is chaotic i.e resembling a plate of spaghetti then confidence will be low. Ensemble members will generally diverge over time and spaghetti plots are quick way to see when this happens.<br>
<br>Spaghetti plot. (2009, July 7). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 20:22, February 9, 2010, from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Spaghetti_plot&amp;oldid=300824682" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Spaghetti_plot&amp;oldid=300824682</a>
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  <div class="eI1">Introduction to seasonal forecasting:</div>
  <div class="eI2">The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions. <br>&nbsp;<br>
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.<br>
&copy;<a href="https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/COPSRV/Seasonal+forecasts+and+the+Copernicus+Climate+Change+Service#SeasonalforecastsandtheCopernicusClimateChangeService-Introductiontoseasonalforecasting">Copernicus</a>
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